CPS reopening and Chicago's 6.7% COVID test positivity rates

The Illinois governor has just imposed new restrictions on bars and restaurants because of an uptick in COVID numbers throughout the state. Chicago’s mayor has started to do some of the same because of a surge in the city. If test positivity rates in the city keep rising the way they did just this past week (a 54% increase in cases), Chicago will be returned to Phase 3 restrictions. Until then, these are some of the latest updates on what Chicagoans can and can’t do.

The newest restrictions, which take effect at 6 a.m. Friday and continue for at least two weeks, include: 

• Business curfew on non-essential businesses beginning at 10 p.m.

• In effect nightly from 10 p.m. -6 a.m.

• Last call for serving liquor at 9 p.m.

• Take-out and curb-side pick-up at restaurants still permitted

• Bars, breweries, and tavernswithout a food license are prohibited from operating any indoor service

• Max. 6 people in your personal bubble (e.g., no household gatherings >6 people of non-household members)

• Face coverings in all indoor and outdoor public settings

The city warned that if the positivity rate increases above 8% for three straight days, indoor dining will be suspended as well. 

"We are no doubt, whatsoever in the second surge," Lightfoot said Thursday. "This is what it looks like."

We’re also being encouraged to reel in our socializing at home in for awhile—minimize Thanksgiving travel and plan no big family gatherings. Pretty much just don’t have friends over to your home indoors at all.

But somehow, in the face of all this, we’re to believe that it’s safe for our CPS schools to open up again.

We’re told by the mayor that she is closely monitoring schools currently in operation, as well as COVID test positivity rates in the city. She says these decisions will be made according to protocol already in place and that the city will closely cooperate with public health officials. She is concerned—as we all should be— that our most vulnerable learners are not getting what they need. I am sure that is true. I’m sure it’s true for all our students, frankly. I want, as much as everyone else, for things to go back to normal. I want for our kids to be back in school. And for the love of all that is holy, I want to go sit in a restaurant and not cook for just one night.

It’s easy for me to whine and complain, but know that it is just that—whining. My family is not in one of the neighborhoods that are consistently in jeopardy in Chicago, always—marginalized communities that the city doesn’t invest in, where “school reform” equals school closures, where there’s poor internet access, where many caregivers are essential workers working outside the home every day. Some good plan needs to be made for all our students, but especially for students who even before COVID already lived in a policy-created state of jeopardy. The mayor affirms that these kids are her priority regarding reopening procedures. She says, rightly, “When you hear people talking about schools, if the first words out of their mouth are not kids and equity, listen closely to what they’re really saying.”

I really couldn’t agree more.

But I’m just wondering.

I’m wondering about the City of Chicago COVID dashboard.

Have you looked at it? It’s amazing. It displays analysis of COVID on a very local level. Right down to the neighborhoods. If you go there, and you should, you’ll see some remarkable technology and mapping. If you spend any time drilling around among the data, you may wonder where Chicago gets its current average COVID positivity rate of 6.7% from.

I wasn’t a math major. I mean I really wasn’t a math major. So you can take what I say about math with a grain of salt. But I’ve always thought “averages” were a little bit of a fiction. This 6.7% certainly strikes me as fictional, and ultimately not especially meaningful when it comes to the question of reopening schools.

I mean I know that an average means that somewhere in the city the rate is going to be lower than 6.7%, and somewhere it will be just about at 6.7%. And somewhere in the city the rate will be higher than 6.7%.

But there are some neighborhoods that skew, let’s just say, a little higher than that in their test positivity rates. And here’s where the fictional nature of an average comes into focus.

One of the safest ZIP codes in the city, COVIDwise, is 60605. The Loop, Near North, and Near South areas of 60605 have a test positivity rate of 7.8%.

Lincoln Park and West Town of 60610 have a test positivity rate of 9.3%.

Going west from there to the 60622 ZIP code area, Humboldt Park and the Near West Side, positivity rates climb to 11.2%.

South Chicago and the East Side have positivity rates of 19%.

Austin, Avondale, Belmont-Cragin, Logan Square, and Hermosa neighborhoods have a rate of 23%.

And the neighborhoods in 60632 and 60629, including Archer Heights, Brighton Park, Gage Park, Garfield, McKinley Park, New City, South Lawndale, Ashburn, Chicago Lawn, Clearing, and West Lawn? Their test positivity rates are just under 28%.

You see, to the people in these neighborhoods, a 6.4% test positivity rate is a fiction. What will it mean for families in these neighborhoods to send their children to school? To travel on public transit to very old buildings that by no means have good ventilation? Where the windows are painted shut and there are already HVAC issues? What will it mean for the teachers? Have city and CPS leaders analyzed how to safely reopen schools in areas with positivity rates that are close to 30%?

One other thing. CPS has said that they will follow the Chicago Department of Public Health guidelines. And CDPH guidelines can be represented in the table below. 3% to 5%, maybe even up to 8% test positivity might be a reasonable target for opening the schools. But I’m not sure where 23% test positivity fits here. There doesn’t seem to be a column for that.

When it comes to the question of reopening schools, CPS is going to have to do better than say they are looking closely at test positivity rates.

They are going to have to actually look at them.